Reform looks unlikely in time for the next general election, which is due by May. With the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) unable to muster more than 30% of the vote, and the two main right-wing parties each polling less than half that, the balance of power is likely to be held by Beppe Grillo’s anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), which also hovers in the high 20s in the polls. But the M5S refuses to join a coalition with any of the mainstream parties, the second explanation for Mr Berlusconi’s rising fortunes. The only foreseeable way to avoid a stalemate would be a government formed, or supported, by centrist elements of the left and right. Forza Italia, though solidly right-wing in many respects, is a more moderate option than either the League or another, smaller, conservative group, the Brothers of Italy.